{"id":8715,"date":"2025-02-27T12:44:14","date_gmt":"2025-02-27T11:44:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/?p=8715"},"modified":"2025-02-27T12:50:36","modified_gmt":"2025-02-27T11:50:36","slug":"fluch-der-schlechten-zahl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\/","title":{"rendered":"The curse of bad numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How poll results influence the electoral chances of small parties<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>With the FDP, the BSW and the Left Party, there are three parties that were within the five per cent threshold in the polls before the 2025 federal election and were fighting for a place in the Bundestag. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the <strong>Interview with the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pw-portal.de\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">pw-portal<\/a><\/strong> explain <strong>Werner Krause (University of Potsdam)<\/strong> and <strong>Christina Gahn (University of Vienna)<\/strong>The impact on the electoral success of parties if they are below the threshold in pre-election polls and what voters should know about the statistical uncertainties of polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You can access the interview <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pw-portal.de\/repraesentation-und-parlamentarismus\/ueberblick\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl-wie-umfragewerte-die-wahlchancen-kleiner-parteien-beeinflussen\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">HERE<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>pw-portal interview with W. Krause (Univ. Potsdam) and Ch. Gahn (Univ. Vienna) on the influence of poll results on the electoral chances of small parties.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":8719,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-allgemein"],"acf":[],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Kachel_Interview-pw-portal.jpg","author_info":{"display_name":"Kirsten Richter","author_link":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/author\/kirstenrichter\/"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fluch der schlechten Zahl - Stiftung Wissenschaft und Demokratie<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fluch der schlechten Zahl - Stiftung Wissenschaft und Demokratie\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"pw-portal-Interview mit W. Krause (Univ. Potsdam) und Ch. Gahn (Univ. Wien) zum Einfluss von Umfragewerten auf Wahlchancen kleiner Parteien.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Stiftung Wissenschaft und Demokratie\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-02-27T11:44:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-02-27T11:50:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Kachel_Interview-pw-portal.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"300\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"300\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Kirsten Richter\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Kirsten Richter\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/en\\\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/en\\\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Kirsten Richter\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a77df42448fabd372f76092aec4f6e45\"},\"headline\":\"Fluch der schlechten Zahl\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-02-27T11:44:14+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-02-27T11:50:36+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/en\\\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":104,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/en\\\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/02\\\/Kachel_Interview-pw-portal.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Allgemein\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/en\\\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/en\\\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\\\/\",\"name\":\"Fluch der schlechten Zahl - Stiftung Wissenschaft und Demokratie\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/en\\\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/en\\\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/02\\\/Kachel_Interview-pw-portal.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-02-27T11:44:14+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-02-27T11:50:36+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a77df42448fabd372f76092aec4f6e45\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/en\\\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/en\\\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/en\\\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/02\\\/Kachel_Interview-pw-portal.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/02\\\/Kachel_Interview-pw-portal.jpg\",\"width\":300,\"height\":300},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/en\\\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Startseite\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Fluch der schlechten Zahl\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/\",\"name\":\"Stiftung Wissenschaft und Demokratie\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.swud.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a77df42448fabd372f76092aec4f6e45\",\"name\":\"Kirsten Richter\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/cbb9547013051ab71268fd6f521af75b92312d5e9be914eef4950b941357e351?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/cbb9547013051ab71268fd6f521af75b92312d5e9be914eef4950b941357e351?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/cbb9547013051ab71268fd6f521af75b92312d5e9be914eef4950b941357e351?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Kirsten Richter\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Fluch der schlechten Zahl - Stiftung Wissenschaft und Demokratie","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Fluch der schlechten Zahl - Stiftung Wissenschaft und Demokratie","og_description":"pw-portal-Interview mit W. Krause (Univ. Potsdam) und Ch. Gahn (Univ. Wien) zum Einfluss von Umfragewerten auf Wahlchancen kleiner Parteien.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\/","og_site_name":"Stiftung Wissenschaft und Demokratie","article_published_time":"2025-02-27T11:44:14+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-02-27T11:50:36+00:00","og_image":[{"width":300,"height":300,"url":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Kachel_Interview-pw-portal.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Kirsten Richter","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Kirsten Richter","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\/"},"author":{"name":"Kirsten Richter","@id":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/#\/schema\/person\/a77df42448fabd372f76092aec4f6e45"},"headline":"Fluch der schlechten Zahl","datePublished":"2025-02-27T11:44:14+00:00","dateModified":"2025-02-27T11:50:36+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\/"},"wordCount":104,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Kachel_Interview-pw-portal.jpg","articleSection":["Allgemein"],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\/","url":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\/","name":"Fluch der schlechten Zahl - Stiftung Wissenschaft und Demokratie","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Kachel_Interview-pw-portal.jpg","datePublished":"2025-02-27T11:44:14+00:00","dateModified":"2025-02-27T11:50:36+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/#\/schema\/person\/a77df42448fabd372f76092aec4f6e45"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Kachel_Interview-pw-portal.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Kachel_Interview-pw-portal.jpg","width":300,"height":300},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/fluch-der-schlechten-zahl\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Startseite","item":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Fluch der schlechten Zahl"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/","name":"Foundation Science and Democracy","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/#\/schema\/person\/a77df42448fabd372f76092aec4f6e45","name":"Kirsten Richter","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/cbb9547013051ab71268fd6f521af75b92312d5e9be914eef4950b941357e351?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/cbb9547013051ab71268fd6f521af75b92312d5e9be914eef4950b941357e351?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/cbb9547013051ab71268fd6f521af75b92312d5e9be914eef4950b941357e351?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Kirsten Richter"}}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8715","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8715"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8715\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8721,"href":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8715\/revisions\/8721"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8719"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8715"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8715"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swud.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8715"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}